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OURIQ

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OURIQ

Um diário trasladado

22
Abr20

Quem melhor critica os epidemiologistas?


Eremita

Outros epidemiologistas: 

The IHME projections are based not on transmission dynamics but on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis. Specifically, the model used reported worldwide COVID-19 deaths and extrapolated similar patterns in mortality growth curves to forecast expected deaths. The technique uses mortality data, which are generally more reliable than testing-dependent confirmed case counts. Outputs suggest precise estimates (albeit with uncertainty bounds) for all regions until the epidemic ends. This appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead. However, the underlying data and statistical model must be interpreted cautiously. Here, we raise concerns about the validity and usefulness of the projections for policymakers. Annals of Internal Medicine

 

 

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    Envelhecer é uma merda! Estava com saudades tuas, ...

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    Saúdo vivamente o regresso dos textos de O Ourique...

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    Ignoro com que sensação o Eremita publicou estas 1...

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